Durability vs. Momentum
Underwrite rounds on durability, not momentum — high durability paired with low momentum often means a cheaper entry.
A lens for evaluating a round: separate how durable the business is — will it still matter and keep compounding years out? — from how much momentum it has right now: hype, competitive heat, round velocity. You’re hunting for durability. Ideally you find it paired with low momentum, because a quiet, under-hyped round tends to price cheaper — so the same durability costs you less to own.
Why it matters: momentum is what everyone bids up; durability is what actually pays off. Buying durability before the momentum arrives is where the return lives.